Winds of change
Dan Rogers reports on the findings of this year’s Husum WindEnergy Study, looking at the market’s future growth until 2030
A recent German wind energy study suggests that, while the sector is going to experience increased growth in the next two decades, Germany may not play the leading role that it has in the recent past. In fact, the WindEnergy Study 2008, commissioned by Husum WindEnergy 2008, predicts that markets in the US and China may play a far more prominent role in the development of the wind energy of the future.
The study, which was commissioned in the run up to the HusumWindEnergy 2008 international trade fair taking place from 9 to 13 September, predicts that globally installed power in the sector is set to reach 288,000MW by 2012, compared to a 2007 level of 94,000MW. Moreover, the world market volume of annual new installations could increase fivefold within ten years - from about 20,000MW in 2007, to around 107,000MW in 2017.
The study asked companies involved in the international wind energy market to assess the medium-term development of the industry. The results were gathered by the German Wind Energy Institute (DEWI) and presented in the ‘WindEnergy Study 2008: Wind Energy Development in Germany and in the World until 2012, 2017 and 2030’.
Using these three dates - 2012, 2017 and 2030 - the study takes snapshots of the future wind energy markets and shows how it has changed, based on predicted market trends. Reflecting on the growth of recent years, the survey forecasts a more positive trend than two years ago, revising predictions made in the WindEnergy Study 2006 and putting the figure for global installation by 2017 at around 718,000MW.
The results build on the promise shown in the wind energy sector in 2007. A figure of around 20,000MW of newly installed turbines worldwide last year is an increase of over 32 per cent compared to 2006. The European market enjoyed significant growth in 2007, with newly installed capacity rising 12 per cent on 2006 figures, from 7,708MW to 8,662MW. Germany remains the market leader, both on the European continent and worldwide, with 22,247Mw installed power, followed by Spain’s 15,145MW. Europe is making progress in the market, with the 6,995MW of newly installed capacity in Europe (excluding Germany) translates into a growth in market volume of around 28 per cent, compared to 2006.
However, it is the market growth outside of Europe that has pushed expectations for wind energy higher this year. A growth of around 52 per cent - almost five times as high as in Europe - shows that, globally, wind energy is becoming a key part of plans for future energy supply.
One of the main agents driving these new expectations for growth is the development of the US, Chinese and Indian markets in 2008, as well as the potential offered by Spain in Europe. 2007 saw a 27 per cent increase in installed power worldwide, taking the power supply from 74,517MW in 2006 to 94,593MW. The study highlights that a significant amount of this additional growth - around 78 per cent - was contributed to by the US, China, Spain, Germany and India.
Changes in markets beyond Europe have propelled nations such as the US and China to the forefront of wind energy supply, and could carry them beyond Germany as market leaders. For example, the WindEnergy Study 2008 underlines the importance of the Production Tax Credits (PTC) scheme - which offers tax benefits for wind energy developments - and the extension of this scheme until the end of 2009. With this measure passed by the US senate - with approval by the US congress still pending - wind energy companies in the US are set to continue developments. Indeed, the study predicts record growth in wind energy for the US both this year and next year.
As well as the US, the Chinese wind energy market has grown, with a capacity of 3,499MW in wind turbines being installed by 44 manufacturers in 2007. According to the companies polled in the survey, Chinese wind turbine manufacturers and independent Chinese rotor blade manufacturers will enter the world market as competitors in 2010.
The study concludes from the promise shown in wind energy gloabally that non-European markets are rapidly catching up with Europe, which has typically led this energy sector. In 2012, about 55 per cent of wind turbine capacity worldwide will be installed outside Europe, compared to a 2007 figure of just 39 per cent.
So why will Germany fall behind, having led the wind energy sector of late? The WindEnergy Study signals at a degree of uncertainty about the prospects of the industry in Germany, reflected by the diversity of statements from companies polled in the current leader of the global wind market - though this may have been affected by the fact that, at the time of the survey, a decision about a revision of the framework conditions for wind energy by an amendment of the Renewable Energies Law had not been made.
However, global growth could still be capitalised on within Europe - with Germany maintaining involvement at the forefront of future developments - according to Thorsten Herdan, managing director of the Manufacturers’ Association VDMA Power Systems. “For 2017, we are talking about a total sales volume of well over €100 billion. To realise this optimistic forecast, German manufacturers and equipment suppliers - who account for more than one third of total sales volume in the wind industry - would have to make another massive increase in their production capacities for turbines and components. A continuous home market for onshore and offshore wind energy, and sufficient skilled manpower, is essential to bring these enormous investments to Germany.” Hermann Albers, president of the Federal Wind Energy Association (BWE), envisions Germany remaining involved in global wind energy growth. “The German export quota of some 80 per cent of manufactured components and turbines is safeguarding and creating more and more jobs,” he explains, “more than 80,000 of them already today.”
Looking to the future, the study confirms rapid growth in the global wind energy sector, with developments both in onshore and offshore markets. The companies polled in the study noted that the wind energy markets in the US, China and Great Britain will increase in importance in the future, with some markets - including France and Netherlands - decreasing.
Other applications of wind energy power could also play a role in the future of the sector. As opposed to generating electricity - either onshore or offshore - and feeding it into the public supply grid, techniques such as using wind energy for water desalination, integrating wind turbines into small diesel-electric grids, or for hydrogen production, could all be important by around 2010 to 2012.
Overall, the study suggests that wind energy will remain the most important sector of renewable energy, with regards to achieving the climate change targets set by governing bodies across the globe. “The WindEnergy Study provides impressive proof of the sustained upswing for wind energy worldwide” says Steve Sawyer of the Global Wind Energy Council. “The market growth shown in the study - that is some 20 per cent per annum worldwide up to 2017 - is a great opportunity for the industry, the labour markets, and for climate protection.”
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